Alright, buckle up, people. The NFL’s playoff circus has rolled into town, and it’s packing all the drama, jaw-dropping plays, and gut punches you want—and some you absolutely don’t. We’re down to the final four squads standing tall (or barely standing), with seven of the eight division champs strutting into this double-dose of chaos called the divisional round. And just like your Aunt Karen’s Thanksgiving dinner, it’s a deliciously messy spread.
First up, the unstoppable Kansas City Chiefs. Yes, the Chiefs again. If this team was a Netflix series, it’d be called “The Mahomes Chronicles: How to Keep Winning and Make Everyone Else Hate You.” They’re the two-time defending Super Bowl champs, which frankly feels like a crime in a league built on parity and heartbreak. Their quest for three titles in a row kicks off against the Houston Texans and their rookie QB, C.J. Stroud—basically the kid who’s been stealing the candy and daring Patrick Mahomes to come get it.
Now, before you start yawning, know this: Houston just embarrassed the Chargers 32-12 last week. Stroud lit it up, including a 27-yard run that looked more like a speedster stealing a candy bar and miraculously escaping his mama’s wrath. The Texans’ defense also made Justin Herbert look like he was trying to read a grocery list in a hurricane, snagging four picks, two by elite corner Derek Stingley.
The question is, can Stroud keep his turnovers below panic-level? And will Joe Mixon find his old form and rush for another 100 yards? If yes, Houston could seriously mess with Mahomes’ rhythm by keeping the football out of his hands. Mahomes, though? He’s a villain who’s mastered his craft—11 TDs and zero picks over his last six games. But—and here’s the kicker—the Chiefs haven’t played a real game in three weeks, and that Rust Factor is real.
Sure, Kansas City’s got the playoff mojo: Mahomes is 8-0 in divisional and wild-card rounds, and the Chiefs have been riding a six-game ATS (against the spread) streak in playoffs. But don’t get too comfortable; when favored by 7+ points with Mahomes on the field, they’re a meh 22-32-3 ATS (including a cringe-worthy 0-5-1 this season). My guess? Chiefs win but it’s not a cakewalk: Chiefs 27, Texans 17.
On the other side of Saturday, we’ve got rookie Jayden Daniels leading the Washington Commanders into a do-or-die duel against the top-seeded Detroit Lions. Daniels isn’t just a rookie; he’s like that weirdly confident new kid who somehow wins at dodgeball the first day and then somehow stomps on Tampa Bay’s Buccaneers in the wild-card round. The Commanders have been like a soap opera of late-game heroics, with five straight wins coming down to the wire. Emotional whiplash, anyone?
But here’s the rub: If Daniels wants to shock the world, Washington needs more than just miracle throws and tight end chemistry. Running backs Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler have to light a fire on the ground – like, seriously, more “road-runners on espresso” and less “three-legged turtle.” Their defense has been pretty stingy, holding the Bucs to their worst output in eight weeks. But the Lions’ offense? It’s the kind of beast that will devour anything in its path.
Detroit might bring back David Montgomery to pair with Jahmyr Gibbs, creating a backfield combo that looks like it was dreamed up by fantasy addicts hopped on Red Bull. Jared Goff will be flinging darts to All-Pro wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown and the other weapons around him. Historically, No. 1 seeds in the divisional round have managed just a 3-5 ATS record since the 14-team playoff expansion—so those comfy odds aren’t what they seem.
Teams that sneak in as wild-card underdogs have it rough in this round, going just 2-20 straight up historically. But hey—Daniels and the Commanders love a good underdog story. This one’s set up for a classic upset battle. I’m going Lions here, just barely: Lions 30, Commanders 24.
Sunday kickoff brings us two jewels. First, the Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Los Angeles Rams. The Eagles, led by Jalen Hurts, shook off a three-week layoff and flexed on the Packers with a solid 22-10 win last week—defense doing the heavy lifting, thanks to a unit that knows how to pound you into submission.
The Rams, meanwhile, are fresh off a Monday night mauling of the Vikings, sacking Sam Darnold nine times like a pack of wild dogs. But they have the not-so-fun challenge of trekking cross-country to Philly on short rest. Sean McVay, master of scheming, is 16-7 ATS on short rest, so don’t expect any excuses. Matthew Stafford will try to reforge his magic with receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, who combined for 177 yards in their last showdown versus the Eagles.
Oh, and here’s the spicy matchup – McVay vs. Eagles defensive guru Vic Fangio. It’s like chess but with more helmet-to-helmet hits. The Eagles rely heavily on running back Saquon Barkley, who’s basically a freight train after hauling in a franchise-record 255 rushing yards in November.
Philly’s divisional round home record? Impressive: 6-0 straight up, covering the spread five times. This is a brutal environment for visitors in January, and with Barkley and that steel curtain defense, I’m calling Eagles 29, Rams 17.
Closing out the weekend is the much-hyped Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen showdown. But here’s a truth bomb: whoever wins doesn’t suddenly get the MVP trophy (that was already decided). Jackson earned All-Pro honors leading Baltimore to a solid win over Pittsburgh, while Allen crushed Denver last week. Baltimore humiliated Buffalo 35-10 back in Week 4, yet now they’re road favorites—a rare slight to the Bills, who haven’t been home playoff underdogs since 1967.
Buffalo’s defense has a monstrous task trying to slow the duo of Jackson’s scrambling wizardry and Derrick Henry’s locomotive power. Big names like Greg Rousseau, Von Miller, and Ed Oliver must pressure Jackson relentlessly or the Ravens will control the game. Baltimore faces a similar challenge stopping Allen and James Cook.
Watch out too for rookie battles: Baltimore’s cornerback Nate Wiggins versus Bills rookie receiver Keon Coleman could be a sleeper highlight. Buffalo is desperate to break the curse of three straight AFC title game losses, making this match an emotional powder keg.
My gut screams upset here. Bills 30, Ravens 27. Because, why not?
Recap: Last week we went 4-2 straight up and 3-3 against the spread. Our playoff guesses overall stand at a cool 196-82 straight up, with a 147-127-4 record ATS. Not terrible, not perfect—thank you, gods of football randomness.
If you’re craving more of this hot take madness, track down the Pro Picks column by AP’s Rob Maaddi, who manages to keep his sanity and accuracy better than I do.
So that’s the scene, folks. The NFL’s final four are lining up for a weekend that promises fireworks, heartbreak, and those moments when you just want to throw your TV out the window (and hug it immediately after). Strap in, grab your snacks, and pray whoever you root for remembered to turn the jets on.