Pro Picks in the NFL Divisional Round: Chiefs, Bills, Lions, and Eagles March On
Look, here we are again in January, desperately clinging to hope that our beloved NFL hero teams will keep the magic alive and not completely disappoint us. I mean, it’s the divisional round of the playoffs — the donuts have been eaten, the popcorn thrown, and now reality sets in. But don’t panic just yet, because my ridiculously optimistic brain insists that four teams will storm into the conference championships: The Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, and Philadelphia Eagles.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans: Can the 3-Peat Dream Live?
Okay, we all know how this story goes. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, fresh off back-to-back Super Bowl crowns, are itching for an impossible three-peat. Their opening challenge? The Houston Texans, led by the surprisingly talented young gunslinger C.J. Stroud.
Houston? They just came off a sick 32–12 smackdown against the Chargers. Stroud pulled off a 27-yard run that made us all think, “Hey, maybe this kid’s the real deal.” But Houston’s defense is a mixed bag — four interceptions in that win, including two from Derek Stingley Jr., who probably wishes he had a medal for wrecking quarterbacks.
The Chiefs already beat Houston 27–19 in Week 16, but the Texans are gnarly. They lost Tank Dell to a knee injury—bad news for Houston, but good news for Mahomes. Mahomes himself is a borderline magician, with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions over his last six games.
But—and it’s a big but—Kansas City’s playoff performance with Mahomes is a mixed bag if you dig past the highlight reel. They’re 8–0 in actual games but only 0-5-1 against the spread as big favorites this season. Meaning? The Chiefs might put on a show or stumble like a sleep-deprived toddler trying to find the bathroom.
Still, Vegas says Chiefs minus 8.5. I say Mahomes and company bring the heat:
Chiefs 27, Texans 17
Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders: Redemption and Revenge
Oh, the Lions. They strutted into the NFL season with the confidence of a cat who’s just knocked over a priceless vase (aka the NFC’s top seed at 15-2). But their playoff fate? A brutal loss to the Washington Commanders, who come charging led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels — the guy who helped them pull off a wild upset over the Buccaneers. Washington’s been living that last-play thriller life lately, winning five straight games on the final snap. Heartbreakers? Maybe. But effective nonetheless.
The Commanders have solid connections with receivers Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown. But to beat Detroit, Washington needs a running game from Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler that doesn’t sputter like my morning coffee machine.
Detroit, meanwhile, might get David Montgomery back – hopefully a catalyst to pair with Jahmyr Gibbs for a backfield that could make defensive coordinators weep. Jared Goff will look to feed the irrepressible All-Pro receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who’s putting in work like a kid hyped up on candy.
Vegas is skeptical about No. 1 seeds in the divisional round (3-5 ATS recently), and underdogs coming off wild-card wins have historically struggled (2-20 straight up). But I’m not buying the underdog gloom here. Something smells like playoff fatigue—but also Lions’ clawing revenge:
Lions 30, Commanders 24
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams: Philly’s Super Bowl Hangover? Not So Much.
The 2024 Super Bowl champs, the Eagles, got off to a shaky start last week after a three-week layoff, but they dusted off their armor and crushed the Packers 22-10 thanks to some old-school defense. The Rams, coming off a Monday night beat-down of the Vikings (nine sacks on Sam Darnold!), are a menace, but they’re facing the Eagles’ stout defensive wall and a running game powered by Saquon Barkley, who once set a franchise record with 255 yards rushing in L.A.
Sean McVay versus Philly’s defense mastermind Vic Fangio? It’s like a chess match between mad geniuses, except the pieces wear helmets and murder you if you mess up.
Matthew Stafford had a decent outing earlier against Philly’s top defense, connecting 17 times with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp for 177 yards. But rest is scarce for the Rams, who had less recovery time after that Monday night slugfest. McVay’s record on short rest? Impressive. Philly’s home playoff record? Intimidating. The scales tip toward the Eagles, my friends:
Eagles 29, Rams 17
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills: The Battle of the AFC Heavyweights
This matchup is hyped every year like it’s going to decide the MVP race or maybe the fate of the freaking universe. Spoiler: MVP votes were cast long before the playoffs even started.
Two teams, familiar with each other’s fast moves: Baltimore with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, who pound the Ravens’ offense like a jackhammer on concrete. Buffalo with Josh Allen and James Cook, who slice through defenses like a buzzsaw in a lumber mill.
The Ravens crushed the Bills 35-10 back in Week 4, but now Baltimore is the road favorite, which is a little disrespectful to Buffalo, a team that hasn’t been a home underdog this late in the playoffs since 1967. Yikes.
Buffalo’s defense will have their hands full trying to contain Jackson’s electric offense. Von Miller, Ed Oliver, and Greg Rousseau have to bring the heat if Baltimore is to be contained. The Bills, in turn, will try to exploit rookie corner Nate Wiggins in tight coverage against Bills receiver Keon Coleman — a matchup that promises some serious fireworks.
The Bills are hungry to break their streak of three straight AFC divisional round losses. My dark horse pick for the weekend:
Bills 30, Ravens 27
Final Thoughts
Last week was a rollercoaster with a 4-2 record straight up and a balanced 3-3 against the spread, keeping the heat on but never quite turning the heat up to scorched earth. Overall, a strong run with 196-82 straight up and respectable against the spread numbers shows this wild NFL ride is far from over.
So buckle up, grab your snacks and maybe a stress ball, because the NFL’s final four remain an electric mix of established juggernauts and hungry challengers. I, for one, am ready to scream at my TV until the bitter end.
This week’s column by yours truly Rob Maaddi, because misery loves company and so does playoff madness. Catch all previous banter and picks right here.